A big thanks to those who came and contributed to this BALPA Flight Safety Conference.

We hope to stimulate a vital discussion that is sadly lacking in our safety management discourse at the industry level.

This is an explicit discussion about helpful system models that underlie and inform our approaches to safety management.

Adaptive Support’s, Tom Laursen & BALPA Flight Safety’s, James Burnell team up to present and discuss the system models needed to support improvements in safety through the coming decades.

Everyone can agree that we can’t predict everything, yet our industry struggles to move beyond a singular use of what could be called the total predetermination model. (An understanding of the system as a machine, which leads to the creation of safety solely through order and compliance.)

System models are used to visualise how any system might work. These consequently inform how we make sense of what is happening and how we create safety interventions.

We propose adding a different system model to our collection, a complex systems model, which might help us better address the opening statement.

The current safety management model largely bets on: ‘We will stay within the control envelope’, but why?

No one model could ever be correct, so there is no place for argument about right or wrong. The debate to be had is about AGENCY. The agency created by the use of various system models in conjunction.

Given the addition of a complex system model, we discuss some capabilities of our SMSs that are needed if we plan to move beyond the current model.

We will also examine whether ICAO and EASA are progressing in this area and present some ideas for change.